I'm at a loss.

Why wouldn't you expect most runners to advance 2 bases on a hit with 2 outs, since they are much more likely they would be running with the pitch than they would be with less than 2 outs?

My problem is my runner on 2nd seems to stop at 3B on singles with 2 outs, but then they'd probably be thrown out at the plate if they tried to stretch it - too many slow runners I guess. I've had runners on 2B stop at 3B when I had on the hit and run - that seems rather common. Someone posted below about it happening to him twice in one game, one of the guys stopped at 2B, and the other was speedster Alex Sanchez who was thrown out at the plate. For me, maybe it was a slow runner, when it happens I'm usually too frustrated to take note.

I assume that your comment is based on "home" games. I have to wonder how the settings are determined for home games for things like base running. I often (usually) don't bother to set my pitchers as middle relief, short relief, etc. when at home, but we all know that for away games if you don't set your pitchers the robot goes wacky. Maybe it does the same for base running at home if pitchers aren't set???

Anybody have an answer?

I do agree with your original premise that if you try to include too many variables, you end up making it a lottery rather than a SIM. I always wonder if there is a random variable picked at the start of each game for whether the wind is blowing out and how hard. Also is there a random effect on whether your pitcher "has his stuff today" (maybe a bug in the "rusty" routine that sometimes makes a READY guy perform as if he's "rusty"?) or if he randomly loses his control? Sometimes it seems that way. If you walk a batter are you more likely to walk the next batter? If you hit a batter are you more likely to hit the next batter? How many times is your pitcher doing ok and then suddenly he walks 2 guys, hits another and then throws a wild pitch? Not uncommon for my pitchers - the worst was a guy who had a no-hitter going in the 6th when he walked 4 consecutive batters and then gave up a grand slam to lose a 5-0 lead. He still had BFA available so that wasn't the problem.

Probably a lot of that is just chance, but maybe not...