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Correct!

Posted By BrianR

The other thing about a stat-driven game is that every event is independent of previous and successive events. This means that no one has a "bad day" (or "good day") that a manager can exploit during a game. If a guy's a 341 hitter against leftie3s and he's struck out 3 times you don't lift him for a 321 hitter because he's "having a bad day". he's still got better odds of getting a hit than the 321 hitter next AB.

In real ball you'll have slumps and streaks that managers can exploit; in PB, the independence of the events means that such slumps and streaks are only identifiable after the game or series.

One huge implication of this is if a star pitcher gets shelled early there is no point in taking replacing him with a lower-rated pitcher. In fact, this may be the biggest reason for divergence between PB and reality.

One day I'm sure they will develop mathematical methods to simulate streaks and slumps that correlate with real world.

BrianR