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What is small sample?

Posted By MBravard

I understand the sarcasm and think I understand the spirit and frustration of the comments but underlying is an interesting discussion.

If a great draft assures a championship season "everytime", then you are playing a SIM that will return close to perfect results in a 50-game season.

PB is not by any means perfect (no SIM could be given the breadth and depth of manager expectations) but it WILL NOT return "perfect" results in a 50-game season. If it did, this would be a good draft game but a crashing bore otherwise.

PB has a really astounding number of "factors" at work---just as baseball does. They are not the exact factors involved in baseball, but they are voluminous and create an ebb and flow in the season reminicent of baseball.

For this to work, the SIM must be designed so that even a 160 game season is too "small" a sample. Otherwise---why play the games? Why not apply metrics after the draft to determine the winner?

Mike Bravard