Just rereading GTeorge Will's Men at Work and found this :

Sandy Alderson said " Judging a baseball team is a lot like surfing in the sense that waves come in, break and go back out, but you can't tell from one or two or even a dozen whether the tide is coming in or going out.Telling that takes more time.Gauging the trajectory of a baseball team takes more than a few games ."

I kinda like that ...