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Just what is a small sample. and why does it apply only here????

Posted By RobG

I understand the though AND the math behind "Small Sample" arguement.... but having been the commissioner of a face to face league that lasted nearly a decade I can say that I don't understand the extremities....

The league I ran (the Federal League) played a 60 game season, and I do not recall such outlandish stat differences. We played in a pared down league of 16 teams.

Generally, batters hit very close to what they were supposed to, and pitchers pitched very close to what they were supposed to. There was the odd exception to the rule (Eric Davis slugging a gawd awful amount of homers one year... 30 or so wasn't it DavidV?) BUT essentially all players performed as expected.

Is this in itself not a small sample? If I'm playing 60 game seasons, is that not an even smaller sample than 160? Should the numbers therefor not be even more skewed? But they weren't. Lefties pitched like they should have, you could draft players knowing that they'd perform something like they did in real life, and trading was much easier.

For the record, the games used in our face-to-face league:

APBA - actually never used for a real league game - the game was play tested by a couple of us through a couple short seasons. Unweildy charts - too many charts really... and a lack of feel for the game. Stats were alright... but it left us looking for MUCH more...

Pursue the Pennant Excellent game - until they began to go crazy with limitations in an attempt to PERFECTLY re-create the majors

Dynasty League Still, in MY HUMBLE OPINION, the BEST face-to-face game I have ever enjoyed. Less tables, more options, excellent balance between reality and fantasy. Awesome game!

Dynasty League Computer The last few years we moved to a computer based league as one of the regulars moved to NewYork. Not as good as their table top game, but still very decent. And it kept all our stats!

So I ask the loaded question.... if these small sample seasons worked... why not here?

It is because of computers... Dice are ALWAYS random... by their very nature they are (we spent extra money to buy specially balanced/hardened dice for the Federal League), but computers are not. Computers run on algorythms, and they will not and can never be truly random. I believe that is what is causing some of our concerns... I also believe the game to be a bit tilted towards offense at the moment...

What scares me is when I look at the REAL majors this year! Offense galore! One can only image what PB will be like next year! :^)

Still... I love the game. I haven't had this much fun on the net in years, and it has really filled a void for me ever since our own Federal League dissolved (all three members of the old Federal League are playing in W9 now)

I am always looking forward to the next home game, and I can't wait for my next home series (BRING IT ON TAMPA!!!!!).

I only write this because I don't want people attributing things to "small sample" size and then walk away. That is all!

Rob
W9 - Port Huron