Think of the probabilities just as you would in real life. Most people -- and virtually no sport writers -- understand how much randomness there is in MLB batting. If a career .300 hitter falls to .280, writer will write about him falling off -- but in reality he just had 10-12 fewer hits drop in. A foot in any direction is often the difference. Sim players should not look for flukes in the game, but see how much randomness affects real-life hot/cold streaks.

Look at the PB stats as your expectations. You never know whether the player will do better or worse, but they are a very good guide.

If you were a real GM, what would you expect from Ken Griffey?