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Stats vs Reality

Posted By Parch

There isn't a game in the world that gets statistically analyzed more than baseball. I dabbled in sabermetrics for a while, enough to realize that statistics never tell the whole story, and can actually be very deceptive if not properly used.

There was a stathead over at the Fanhome boards that thought he had developed a formula that could accurately predict the success of minor league players in the majors. He never had to see a player to predict success. Ridiculous. There would be no need for scouts if everything could be determined with stats. He would quickly ridicule scouts and their "tool" ratings because he thought they were too subjective. I've seen hundreds of minor league games and strongly believe that stats can be very deceptive, but it's hard to convince a stathead of that. I've talked to a few scouts and seen what they do. Scouts do a lot more than be subjective. They also use very advanced sabermetrics to help develop a player profile, but stats are only a small part of the picture.

I certainly can't assume that baseball people are wrong because the stats don't indicate that Mientkiewicz deserve the gold glove. From what I've seen, and from what I've heard from Twin fans, Baseball America, and other baseball experts, Mientciewicz was a lock for the gold glove. I don't know why the stats can't prove it, but stats can be wrong.

Obviously we have to play this game based on stats, but maybe that's why there seems to be so many anomolies in PureBaseball. Stats don't always accurately reflect reality.