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Away Advantage - One Last Try

Posted By BrianB.

The best point to counter my argument that the gameplay favors the visitors is that managers tend to rest their studs at home. So I looked for a way to measure game results without that factor involved. Then it struck me ! The first round of the playoffs features home teams of an overall higher quality than the visitors. Sure, there will be the occassional wild card with a better record than a division champ but there will be many more close records and League Juggernaut versus the worst record series. Also, managers are not going to be resting their stars in the playoffs. It's win-or-go-home time, so the best will play.

Thus, you'd expect the home teams to win a majority of the games; maybe even a large majority. Remember, in MLB the home team wins 52% of the time. So, how many games would you expect the home team to win in the first round ? Out of 100 games ? 60 ? More ?

Try 48. The visiting teams won 52 out of 100. This clinches it for me. Under these circumstances: mostly superior teams, human managers running the bullpen, no resting stars, last licks, for the VISItors to win 52% of the games says loudly & clearly to me that PB is slanted towards the visitors to counterbalance the human managerial edge.