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Too Many Flaws in Thinking

Posted By Tomj

It was an interesting approach to take, but there are way to many variables you are assuming to be non-factors.

Because of the duration and structure of a playoff series, teams are set up differently than during the regular series. A lower seeded playoff team with 2 stud starters with a lot of innings (say Schilling & Johnson), can be used to start 5 of the 7 games, thus tilting the balance of power (sounds like a strategy Bob Brenly used doesn't it).

If the higher seeded team is much better than their opponent, it is quite possible for it to be a 5 game series, the favored team wins one of 2 at home, then their superior depth takes over and they sweep on the road. Thus you'd actualy have something you expect, the better team winning the series, with 4 of the 5 games won by the visiting team.

Also, playoff games get much more care & focus by the owners, so a visiting owner can set up a 2 or 3 game 'road trip' and really focus on matching up hitters with the opponents pitchers, thus throwing off the statistic.

The primary reason we see 'home field advantage' in sports is due to the players getting to stay at home, with families, in their environment etc and the 'not insignificant' factor of home crowd & ballpark. In PB, all those influences are meaningless so I would hope that the ratio of home wins to road wins is closer to 50%.

If the robot were the culprit, we would see more home wins than visitor wins, beacuse the robot would be doing a very bad job of managing. This is not the case. I love the challenge of going up against a tough robot.