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Supporting Brian with some stats...

Posted By Doug

This thread got me to looking on the ‘net as to home and away records of teams over a given period of time. The best that I could come with (given 15 minutes of searching the 'net) was the following:

http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ws/history/ws_history_ws_summary_AL.jsp
http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ws/history/ws_history_ws_summary_NL.jsp

These two links (from Major League Baseball) list the home and away records in the World Series for all currently existing and several no-longer-exisiting teams. The combined home record for the teams listed for both leagues is 304-257, a .542 winning percentage over 561 games. My suspicion is that PB's winning percentage for home teams in general is less than that, and significantly so. My guess is closer to 50-50. Brian's assertion is that "PB is slanted towards the visitors to counterbalance the human managerial edge" and uses the fact that, in playoff games, small sample size granted, the visiting team won 52 out of 100 games. I don't believe that this is a condemnation of PB, more a possible bias that the game has that should be 1) known to managers who wish to get better at this game and 2) reviewed by PB staff in their spare time (yeah, right) to possibly adjust.

The fact that we are arguing such small percentages implies that Mike, Dwight, et al. have done a fantastic job in creating this simulation. I wish this discussion could move forward with more factual analysis done, to help make the game better. I also wish we could, as a group, do a better job of not getting testy with each other regarding a game about which we are all quite attached.

Doug Deakin
M6 Peoria Norsemen
B10 D'ville Yellow Jackets
98T2 Farmington Fighting Illini
99RT5 Rightwing Extremists
02LL1 Atlanta Crackers
02LL2 D'ville Cardinals