This years draft does look good but, like all drafts, we'll have a better idea down the road. I have lists of the top rookies in the PB draft for the last 3 years(In a table showing order of selection in each perpetual league and the average slot taken. If you'd like copies e-mail me @ mull26@erols.com) . Here's how they look:

1999 - Considered a great draft at the time, still looks like it now. There were 14 of John Sickels top 50 rookies from the Stats Minor League Scouting Notebook in the draft, but 9 of the top 13 were there including many players who will be fixtures at the All-Star Game for years.

J.D. Drew
Troy Glaus
Eric Chavez
Aramis Ramirez
Adrian Beltre (nice group of 3B's)
Carlos Beltran
Kerry Wood
Eric Milton
Russ Ortiz (Not taken in 1st round at all)
El Duque Hernandez
Bobby Howry
Matt Anderson
John Rocker
Travis Lee
Geoff Jenkins (Not taken in 1st round at all)
Carlos Guillen
Gabe Kapler
Jeremy Giambi
Marlon Anderson
Alex Gonzalez (FL)
Shane Spencer
Mitch Meluskey
Paul Bako

Reason to distrust young pitchers:
Pavano
Chen
Elarton
Halladay
Clement
Arrojo
Jesus Sanchez
Ryan Bradley

Busts (so far, anyway)
Carlos Febles
Mike Caruso
Yoshii
A.J. Hinch
Michael Barrett
Randy Winn
Calvin Pickering
Ricky Ledee


In the 2000 draft there were 14 players from John Sickel’s top 50 list. This draft had a lot of pitching, as does this year. The results may serve as a warning.

Top Guys

Tim Hudson
Freddy Garcia
A.J. Burnett
Joe Mays
Matt Morris
Octavio Dotel
Billy Koch
Jeff weaver
Ramon Ortiz
Tony Armas
Eric Gagne
Kip Wells
Jeff Zimmerman
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Lee
Ramon Hernandez
Jacque Jones
D’Angelo Jiminez
Chris Singleton
Ben Petrick

What Happened ?
Rick Ankiel
Kris Benson
Scott Williamson
Ruben Mateo
Eurebiel Durazo
Ryan Rupe
Vernon Wells
Gookie Dawkins
Chad Hermanson
Ed Sauerback
Ed Yarnall
Kevin McGlinchey
Matt Riley
Gil Meche
Joe Nathan
Peter Bergeron
Chad Allen
Juan Pena
Tomo Ohka

There may be more but my data only includes players chosen in the first round of at least 1 PB league. All in all, not a very productive draft

2001

Considered only an OK draft at that time, no one was raving about it on the forum. There were 7 of Sickels top 50 in it, 1/2 of the prior two drafts. Here’s how it looks:

Barry Zito
Mark Mulder
Mark Buehrle
Brad Penny
Sasaki
Burrell
Furcal
Jose Ortiz
Luis Rivas
Jimmy Rollins
Juan Pierre

The jury is still out on :

Cory Patterson
Adam Eaton
Chuck Smith
Rob Bell
Adam Piatt
Joe Crede
Jon Garland
Milton Bradley
Lorenzo Barcelo
Seth Etherton
Paul Rigdon
Julio Lugo
Doesn’t look good for:
Kelly wunsch
Aubrey Huff
Brian Tollberg
Brit Rheames
Matt Kinney
Mike Lamb
Kevin Walker
Paxton Crawford
Chris Richard
Chris Truby
Pedro Feliz
Ryan Kohlmeier
Timo Perez

Looks like a terrible draft, but there’s still time for some of the fence-sitters to blossom.

What stands out for me is that for a draft to be considered great it has to have a lot of good position players because young pitchers are just a total crapshoot. Certainly a cautionary note for this years crop which is very heavily weighted towards pitching.