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Is the 2nd best rookie an open and shut case or is it debatable?
I've stayed out of this as long as I could bear it but I just have to stick my $0.02 in.
Hypothesis:
Ichiro Suzuki is a very good baseball player and should maintain that status for several years, but the case for him as the 2nd best rookie in this year's class is not an open and shut case. He might be the 3nd or 3rd best but there may be other candidates for that position as well.
Numerical Evidence:
Age AVG OBP SLG OPS PA HR SB Def R RBI
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Player "A" 28 .350 .381 .457 .838 738 8 56 7.2 127 69
Player "B" 22 .262 .371 .578 .949 572 38 8 4.1 104 86
Player A Ranks 56th among all (qualifying) players in OPS. Player B
ranks 25th among all (qualifying) players in OPS.
Age W L IP ERA SO BB
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Player "C" 23 14 3 141 2.73 144 24
Player "D" 22 12 6 170 3.83 118 26
Player "E" 21 17 5 180 4.39 171 95
Player C would rank 2nd in MLB in ERA if he had an additional 21 IP.
Player D ranks 33rd in MLB in ERA
Player E ranks 50th in MLB in ERA.
Analysis:
Using the assumption that the figure of merit for hitters is OPS and
the figure of merit for pitchers is ERA then we might evaluate the
2001 seasons of these players and place them in the following order
Player C (2nd best ERA)
Player B (25th best OPS)
Player D (33rd best ERA)
Player E (50th best ERA)
Player A (56th best OPS)
Also consider that quality pitching is usually in short supply but good hitting
corner outfielders often are not in short supply.
Player A is in his prime and what we see is probably near the peak
level we should expect. Players B, C, D, and E are very young and have
several years to get better, albeit C, D, and E are pitchers so the risk
of injury or flop is higher.
Conclusion:
In this humble writers opinion there are no less than five names
that can be reasonably suggested as being the 2nd best player in this years
draft. It all depends on what you need and what you believe each player
will do in the future.
(And a case can also be made for Ben Sheets and Josh Beckett
and maybe some others on talent alone).
Granted the above analysis ignores the stolen bases. But they really aren't a huge
deal in todays game.
For what it is worth on my draft list I had
Albert Pujols
Player C
Player E
Player B
Ben Sheets
Player D
Player A
If you are curious who the players are scroll down
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Player A is Ichiro Suzuki
Player B is Adam Dunn (doubled since he played less than half the year)
Player C is Roy Oswalt
Player D is Bud Smith (doubled since he played less than half the year)
Player E is C.C. Sabathia