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Offense Building Theories
This is a continuation of threads below that started from a discussion of Ichiro vs. other rookies and then extended to a discussion of speed vs. power. But thats getting long so I thought lets start a new one for a different concept.
The point has been raised by some people that power (possibly implying home runs, but maybe implying SLG %) is what rules the game today. And on the other side people have praised top leadoff hitters (implying high OBP and maybe a lot of speed or SB) that can get on base a lot to create opportunities for offense.
I respectfully submit that neither of those perspectives tell the complete story. The best hitters are those that have both power (SLG% more important than HR) and high on base percentage.
If you look at some of the top hitters -- Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones, Robbie Alomar, Bobby Abreu, Brian Giles (to name a few that I am familiar with because I have them on teams) -- what you see is most of those guys have both a high OBP and a high SLG%. Some are a little better at one or the other but they are all pretty good at both.
In a lot (but not all) cases it turns out that elite power hitters are more valuable hitters.... not because home runs are that important.... but because a lot of times those guys (the elite ones) that pound doubles and home runs are also good at hitting singles and drawing walks so they have a high OBP also. Often times a leadoff hitter that gets on base a ton and also has a lot of power soon finds that he gets dropped from leadoff to the middle of the order if he continues to produce power.
Numerically what I am saying is:
This guy
Player A: .400 OBP, .550 SLG, 30 HR
is clearly a better hitter than this guy
Player B: .400 OBP, .400 SLG, 10 HR
Granted Player B is going to be a good table setter. But Player A is also a good table setter. It just turns out that some of Player A's talents are wasted if the pitcher and weak hitting catcher are hitting in front of him. But make no mistake Player A is the more productive hitter in this example and on a couple of times when I had a stacked lineup I was not ashamed to use Jeff Bagwell, Brian Giles, or Bobby Abreu in the leadoff slot.
I'll deal with Stolen Bases in another post.