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Nothing Changes
Once you get beyond the "millionaire v. billionaire" takes of most columnists and most fans, you can see how this labor agreement was good for only a small segment of the parties involved - specifically those owners who own teams and choose making money over being competitive. The players aren't better off, most analysts agree that this form of luxury tax will put some kind of drag on salaries. Since the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers will continue to go after high-priced talent, you'll probably see them (like the NFL) keeping more $400,000 scrubs on the roster instead of $3 million veteran backups to keep from going too far over payroll. The rate of increase for the top paid players will slow, but the biggest (negative) impact will be on the middle class.
The fans don't win. You can argue whether or not this will improve competitive balance, or whether competitive balance needs to be improved. Haven't we seen great races the past few years? You can also argue whether or not a Yankee team w/ low-paid backups is more or less enjoyable to watch than one with millionaire backups. But, baseball will not get cheaper to watch. There are several scientific studies to show that ticket prices are UNRELATED to salaries or expenses. They are only related to market value. I saw a great quote from Jim Bouton the other day: If players played for free, and an owner could sell tickets at $40, he charge exactly $40. Baseball is already selling internet games that a year ago were free, and you can see paid TV coming as well. So, expenses get capped and revenue will continue to go up.
Small market teams who try did not benefit. Rob Neyer had a great article the other day of how the A's can benefit from losing free agents to other teams by making good picks with draft picks given as compensation. But, those draft picks are no longer awarded under the new agreement. So, the next time the Yankees or Red Sox outbid Oakland by $8 million per year (still staying within the non-taxed limits), there will be nothing that Oakland will get back in return. And, they are still going to have a lower budget to work with.
The biggest problem of the deal however was the absence of a requirement that team owners who get revenue sharing to invest in the team. THEY CAN DO WHATEVER THEY WANT WITH THE MONEY. So, David Glass or Carl Pohlad or Wendy "The Daughter" Selig gets $10 million at the end of the year courtesy of the Yankees, Braves, Dodgers, etc. That's their money and there's nothing to say that have to go out and extend Roberto Hernandez' contract, or sign another Eric Young to replace Ron Belliard, or actually do something that results in good baseball decision-making.