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Bonds HR

Posted By Bob

Bonds has been my favorite player since I was a graduate student at Arizona State Univ during the time Bonds played there. I have him on all three of my PB teams. I was fortunate to have the first pick in the A-12 formation draft a dozen years ago and selected Bonds with that pick. I traded for him in K-17 two years ago. I added a third team this year in Challanger (knowing Bonds was on the roster and the park was Colorado) mostly to see how many homers he could hit. My preseason projection was for 118! My rationale assumes that in a variey of parks on the road he would hit half his major league total (36.5 homers). At home COL is rated 153 for LHB and SF is rated 68 for LHB, 153/68=2.25 so at home he should hit 36.5 x 2.25 or 82 homers. Combined home and away totals and you get 118. With 20 games remaining Bonds has hit 99 HR which projects to 113 homers (160/140 x 99 = 113). Right on target!
PS the 99 HR actually hit break down to 36 on the road and 63 at home. My team has 15 home games remaining and 5 road games. Can Barry club 19 more to reach his target? Probably not but I bet he comes close. I would be curious to hear from any other managers who own Bonds.