First let me state that I am not in favor of a strict cap that affects a lot of teams. In the pre-Bonds days I have seen a few teams affected by the old caps and I would not be opposed in principle to something that affects an average of 5-10% of the teams (which is what it was originally designed to do).

However, my concern is that with PB values being sort of random (for pitchers at least... see my post below) it almost seems unfair to impose a limit that has a major impact. When you can take two pitchers with very nearly the same Grade, Clutch, and Innings (maybe a 10% difference overall) and one of them has a PB value almost double the others then I think there is a problem with basing anything important on those PB values.

That said........ I realize that regardless of the imperfections in the PB value system a cap of some sort is inevitiable.

It has been proposed that the cap be based on a percentage of the average PB value of the teams when cuts to 27 are made. To me that presents a logistical problem. If you do not know that the magic number is before the cuts must be made (or before draft picks must be made) then how can a person make sure they are under the cap.

Are we suggesting that teams cut to 27 ..... then say the cap is 80. If someone has 82 on their team (because they didn't know what number to get down to, because it wasn't published) then you are going to take a player away to get down to 80 and make them play with 26? That hardly seems fair... since the number wasn't published.

I think the way it needs to work is that the number is announced ahead of time. I suggest that the number be a certain percentage of the total PB value of all players. I don't know the exact number......... but let's do a rough example for a 24 team league just for practice.

As soon as all of the ratings are finalized for the 2002 season then it would be possible to compute the total PB value for all players available. Lets suppose that number turns out to be about 1800 (I made that number up).

That means each teams fair share is about 75. Of course we know that the number of players drafted will be less than 100%. Lets say that 95% (wild guess) of the PB value will be on rosters at the end of the FA draft. That means each teams share (if all were equal) is 75*.95 = 71.25. Lets further suppose that before the FA draft about 85% of the PB value will be on rosters in a 24 team league. This means each teams share is 75*.85 = 63.75. Lets suppose that a reasonable percentage for a cap is 125% of average. Then using these numbers the Cap couls be set at 1.25*63.75 = 79.7. Round it to 80.0 just to have a round number. Then you publish 80.0 as the number and everyone can plan accordingly.

Now ....... I don't have all the knowledge to pick the right numbers so I made some up. Mike, who has better data on the things which I assumed, can substitute the appropriate numbers into my formula and then report what the result is. Its based on trends so every 24 team league would have one number and every 20 team league would have a higher number. Everyone knows the numbers and plans accordingly.

Incidentally .... I'm probably the 1st or 2nd team in one of my leagues and when I computed earlier tonight my best 25 players for next year have a PB value of about 83. So if the number was 80 this would cause me to drop one player of value about 3-4.