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You would not pick last

Posted By Fred Cline

I was showing examples, whether that actual formula of a straight wins/PB value is the best I don't know - but something that models real baseball, where you need to win, or show you can win with limited resources, to get free agents to sign and grow your team, seems fair to me.

Right now the Rookie Draft models baseball - the bad teams get the first picks. But signing Free Agents doesn't go to the worst teams. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay won't be making big free agent signings this off-season.

I went through your league, and its interesting - the average PB value in W9 is 79.7, and of course the average wins will be 80.0. If you divide projected wins by current PB value, you would actually pick 14th out of 20. If you calculate wins - PB value, you also pick 14th.

I'd consider that fair. Compared to 6 other teams you will win more with the talent you have than they will. They will pick below you in *both* the Rookie and FA drafts under this system. However there is another team in your league that has a PB value of 47 - and they are on pace for 9 more wins than you. They should be rewarded for that as well. And teams that are winning should have a better shot at signing a free agent than you would, with a sub .300 winning percentage.

So I have two points:

1. Just because something doesn't help you this year, doesn't make it a bad or unfair system.

2. The goal of this is not to make every bad team better: its to make things fair for everyone and closer to real baseball, and to discourage teams from tanking or hoarding talent.

Fred Cline