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Garth is correct - PB value doesn't look deep enough...

Posted By RobG

Garth is right...



But it may be the choice of measurements that is penalizing Hunter. ESPN.com has a wealth of stats and I was able to look at where FBs go versus each team. It does turn out that although the Twins gave up a lot more FBs (350 more), only 12 more were hit to CF. There were 237 more FBs hit to MIN LF/RF than ARI's, and 103 more to "uncatchable" Zones.

To summarize what I think I have learned: PB severly discounts Hunter's range factor because the Twins Pitching staff had a low strikeout rate and a low GB/FB ratio. However, all those extra FBs went to LF or RF (all but 12). So, the calculations appear correct, but they may not be the right calculations. They assume that the ratio of balls hit to each OF spot is the same for each team. The PB range factor reflects my previous calcuation that Finley takes away a lot more hits than Hunter.

Maybe just using the Zone Rating is better even with its own flaws.

I didn't look at all other teams (I do have a life, really) but compared to the Diamondbacks and Braves, the Twins had a much lower percentage of FBs to CF. The Braves gave up 342 fewer FBs than the Twins, but actually 35 MORE balls to CF.


This needs to be addressed - where the balls are hit are mor important than just the generic FB/GB ratio.

As it is, Torii Hunter (ODR 3, Range 1, Arm 5, F.PCT 6), a gold glove center fielder will be my DH next year. Eli Marrero is my starting CF (ODR 8.7 Range 9.6 Arm 5, F.PCT 9.9).

RobG
W9 - Port Huron