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Noise?

Posted By MBravard

GB/FB for the whole pitching staff is used to determine the "quality" of a player's chances per game. By the same token the staff strikeout ratio is used.

I hardly see how taking into account the amount of times the ball is hit in the air and the amount of times the ball is hit at all by the opposition is not a viable way to "qualify" chances per game?

As to limited stats issues, situations's like the Nickle instance happen because the stats are kept track of AFTER every game and therefore he was worn out after the game. These players can not be used in the playoffs and most PBers would prefer they be included in regular season action. In any case, this is hardly a factor in determining the voracity fo the SIM as these players can simply be eliminated from play if that is what most managers want.

LH/RH stats and all other determinants MUST be looked on a per season basis. There are arguments on both sides but this issue has been discussed in reference to EVERY SIM game in existance and ALL have decided that only one season's stats be used. No SIM uses considerations based on several seasons for one excellent reason---they corrupt the SIM with extraneous information not related to that season.

Yes there will be abberations based on small numbers in statistical simulations. Yes a SIM does not always exactly reflect what might happen in real life. But LH/RH stats do add strategic opportunities which interest most SIM managers and for the most part mirror the real life decision process. MLB managers, for instance know that LHP Moyer is tougher on RHB than LHB and load their lineups accordingly. In fact they often make lineup decisions based on stats versus individual pitchers---now that is a real small number problem!

Miek Bravard (PB)