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stats and fielding, the case further developed

Posted By Garth

First, Mike, one sim does use multi-year splits: Scoresheet. Of course, its a "predictive game" rather than a playable one like PB. I agree that PB over-emphasizes the splits, but so be it -- in the end its a game. The real cause is the large roster size and the freedom to design a team to face your opponent, especially in a 20-team league. I don't have a good alternative, especially for RT leagues where the roster size is really required. So I can just play and enjoy as it is.

But for the range calcs, I do offer an alternative: I recommend a switch to basing 100% on Zone -- for all positions. Its a good stat. Torii Hunter is just the greatest example of how the current PB calculations distort a guy's talent rather than adding insight as intended. It seems that Hunter is a bad OF in PB purely because so many balls were hit to LF and RF.

Compare the Twins to the Braves:
in 2002

% of catchable OF balls hit to CF vs Twins: 34%
% of catchable OF balls hit to CF vs Braves: 41%
So Andruw had a shot at a much bigger % of FBs than did Torii. (I calculated these from ESPN.com, total team chances divided by total team Zone for each position. Remember that the CF Zone is big -- FBs to the gaps are in the CF zone.)

PB ratings are severly at odds with Zone rating because of the big team-team differences in where balls go. Twins CFs are severly under-rated and their corners are severely over-rated.

Twins/Braves Zone Rtg PB Range

CF
Hunter .899 1
Andruw .879 6
Hunter gets to bigger % of CF&gap balls, but Andruw gets to bigger % of team FBs -- only 'cus more go to CF

LF
Jacque .903 7
Chipper .904 4.4
Jacque gets the advange in PB of so many more balls hit to LF, even though the sportwriters who code for STATS' Zone calculate that Chipper covers as well.

RF
Mohr .897 7
Sheffield .905 4
Same thing.

#2 CF
Kielty .923 0.2 (193 innings)
Bragg .881 4 (110 innings)
Same thing; Minn CF is rated as terrible even though STATs says he's good.

This has been just about CF so far. But I would guess that the same kind of distortion goes to other positions. For example, if IF range is based on total team GBs, then a 3B on a team with LH starting pitchers will be over-rated by PB. (Zone would account for more balls going to the right side, but PB would not account for that). I haven't done a complete analysis but I wanted to find one pair to compare and check. I immediate thought of the A's with a high % of starts by LH SPs. Found another good 3B on a team with all RH SPs: Aaron Boone. Guess what? Chavez is over-rated and Boone under-rated (relative to each other)

3B Zone PB Range
Chavez .833 8
Boone .847 5
Boone seems to be downgraded by PB because the Reds face more LH batters than do the A's.

Mike, Zone is at least based on sportswriters at the games. PB range is distorted by the assumption that FBs and GBs are evenly distributed from team to team. Zone is truly stats-based and would eliminate complaints about the ratings. Think about it.