We all have had pitchers get clobbered in one game and ruin a season. I rue the MLB manager that leaves in a starter in a late Sept game who is getting rocked...as his season long ERA is climbing. Unfortunately, that's life.
The PB ratings should therefore recreate Smoltz's 3.24 ERA, and not his ERA minus a few appearances that he got rocked.
My personal opinion, from managing hundreds of PB games, is that the pitcher's clutch rating doesn't really work that well.
I find that a pitcher's base rating, if higher than his clutch rating, tends to give one a pitcher that performs better.
One season I had Steve Parris...he had a great clutch rating, but once men got on base, he invariably gave up another hit or two. His ERA by the end of the season was over 6.00...when it should have been nearer to 4.00.
Last year, Millwood, with a better bases empty rating, did very well for me in D5.
So, I'd predict Smoltz will do better than he should in PB this season.
I'd be interested in some other opinions too.