Just to be clear, I wasn't suggesting that you eliminate bad games. Rather, that ERA is not a very good measure of pitcher performance (particularly relief pitchers), as demonstrated by the dramatic difference that a single game made to Smoltz last year. Therefore, I would disagree that Smoltz' 3.25 ERA should be recreated by the sim. Rather, I think that the sim should recreate the significant stats - hits allowed, walks, strikeouts, etc.