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On the flip side of that argument
I drafted Kile in the 6th round of FA in K15 this spring. So it seems to me like in his case a 5th round FA is closer to reality than a 2nd round FA would be.
I think it really depends on who the players involved are. A person can't make a blanket statement that all 30 something players who either have no future or struggle in 2003 are worth X, because it really depends on the specific circumstance.
It's a guessing game... Jose Valentin was on the scrap heap a few years ago and he's had a couple good seasons and at least one other decent season since then. I thought Woody Williams and David Wells were done a couple years ago but look at them now. You just don't know so you have to make reasonable, intelligent guesses.