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uncertainty factored into evaluation

Posted By RobE

I disagree that the uncertainty about where the draft pick will be makes it overly difficult to evaluate trades. It is just another factor that goes into the valuation. I actually think the possibility of getting one of the top picks makes it easier to make deals. The drafts usually are very top heavy. Once you get past say a top 5 or so pick, I am not sure that there is a ton of difference between the middle of the first round pick and an end of the round pick. The average FA pick will fall in the middle of the round. I think many people, me included, like taking the gamble that they might get a top pick in return and thus value the picks higher than a middle of the round pick and thus give more in return for that pick. If everyone knew exactly where the pick would fall, it would be impossible to find the risk taking owner who is willing to give up more than the pick is worth.

I like the system.