What I notice is that you have as good of chance of getting a good player with the 20th pick in the rookie draft as with a top 5 pick.

This means to me that you should trade a top 5 pick for two lower picks in the 1st round. With only a 40% chance of getting a star in the top 10, you might as well double your chances of getting a good player.

Oh, and stay away from pitching. 1 out of 4 might help in the long run.