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The game if very accurate.
Every year I do preseason predictions in K15, using a number of formulas to predict how many wins each team is going to win. I'm very accurate because this game produces accurate results.
I'm currently playing Diamond Mind baseball. It is regarded as the most realistic game on the market. So far I've played 4 season using my fantasy team, they finished anywhere from 87-75 to 65-97. With 3 of the seasons under .500 Does this mean this sim is broken, I don't think so. Run 100 seasons and it will always give you variation. In the long run, the cream rises to the top.
Regarding starting games 1 & 4. This happens alot at the beginning of the season. If a team has a 4 man rotation this can easily occur. A pitcher starts with 35, pitches 5 innings, leaving him with 15, recovers 9 per game, giving him 33 for game 4, thus he will start game 4.