If the Season Ended Now!!!

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If the season ended now the average PB value for twenty team leagues would be about 91 +\- 0.60.

I guess that means, if we take Ken's read, unless you have a team with a PB value of something probably higher than 97, you might be on the bottom looking up all next season.

I checked two leagues (S3 and D5) and found the average PB values to be 91.152 and 91.624 respectively. Interestingly, the DH league was 13 to 14 points, on average, higher in each league. I don't know if this would be true if every league were checked but if true, what does this bit of data suggest?

Somehow I feel that many of you reading this are saying so what and why now. I don't have an answer for either question except to say that I love statistics and have always wondered about the significance of the PB value whether it's during the off season or now toward the end of the season. Most teams in MLB have completed about 75% of their schedules so the PB numbers are fairly significant. I'm glad this issue came up on the bulletin board.

Here's another aspect. Should a manager with a 2005 PB value say under 85 or so (surely that's not going to be enough to make the playoffs in any league of 20 teams) begin trading now for the 2006 season or wait until after the season ends? I don't have an answer for that either except to say that trading during the off-season is often trying. It seems to me that the managers who stay with the program all year and therefore trade during the off-season, for the most part, are the ones with superior teams. They are tweaking. Trading now is probably going to get you more trades and give you a better chance in the future.

It's hard to think two seasons down the road, let alone one, but if you have no chance next season you should develop a plan that leads you toward a decent 2006 team. Personally, I would start by picking up pitchers coming off sore arm seasons who have had some history of consistency before the arm ache. Same thing may apply for some position players. And then there's the "can't miss" player of two or three years ago who missed but seems to be hanging around, and around. Like a Morgan Ensberg for example.

Oh well, enough is enough!!!!